~ From the desk of RJ Bell ~Adding to your Bracket IQ RJ Bell First comes filling in your brackets. Office pool success is typically decided by two types of predictions: 1) Picking teams that will go deep into the tournament; 2) Picking a healthy amount of upsets in the early rounds. On the surface every #1 seed looks strong – that’s why they're top seeds. But you’re not going to win your pool without scoring with some surprises. Let’s take a look at how #1 seeds have historically done: (All
stats are since 1985, the year the Big Dance became a 64 team
tournament. All results are straight up with no consideration for
point spread.) Very interesting . . . never all four, but never none – one or two 17 of the last 20 years! Considering that picking upsets wins bracket pools, the numbers advice advancing only one #1 to the semi-finals in your bracket. Which
one? Key fact to consider: Of the 80 Final Four teams in our sample,
26 failed to meet ALL of the following conditions: Stunningly, only 4 of those 26 teams that failed to meet ALL the above conditions made the Final Four! 30 of 54 teams who did meet these conditions did make the Final Four! But
don’t count on #1 seeds falling easily: In the Elite 8, #1s are only 20-19 to win that next game to reach the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seeds. When playing any other seed lower than 3, the #1s have won 14 of 17 games to reach the Final Four. Of the 222 times top seeds have played #5 seeds or lower, those lower seeds have won only 21 times (that’s over 90% winners for the #1s when playing a significantly lower seed) Which leads to a key point – seemingly upset worthy #8 and #9 seeds inevitably must face a #1 in the 2nd round, severely decreasing the likelihood of advancing as far as even the 3rd round. #2 seeds are 76-4 in the 1st round; but #2 are only 16-13 in the 2nd round vs. #10 seeds. #3 seeds are 67-13 in the 1st round – but less than 50% make it to the 3rd round! #4 seeds are 64-16 in the 1st round – but less than 50% make it to the 3rd round! At least one #12 seed has beaten a #5 in the 1st round every year but one since 1988. Seeds #13 or worse win less than 14% of games played, making them extreme long shot picks to win even a single game. Which leaves 10, 11, and 12 seeds as prime Cinderella candidates – when they win in round 1, these sleepers are a surprising 39-43 to win in the 2nd round and move on to the Sweet 16. The Elite 8 is where the big upsets usually end. 26 times in this round big underdogs (defined by being 4 or more seeds worse) have faced favorites, winning only 4 times (15%). Seeds of
80 Final Fours teams of the last 20 years: 88% of
Final Four teams come from the top 3 seeds! Of the last 20 champions, 11 were #1 seeds. Don’t
believe the myth that the Mid-Major conferences are closing the gap
with the big boys – in the last 5 years, these conferences have: Important game factors to keep in mind when picking winners: Experience of both the players and the coach in the Big Dance - The more the better. How the team did on the road during the season – Tournament games are road games. Home court fan advantage for certain teams in certain rounds. Ignore bench depth – over the last 5 years, Final Four teams have gotten over 80% of their points from their five starters. Most likely upset in round 1 according to our network of experts: #11 UTEP over #6 Utah. Never miss another winner from FPBE - Introducing PhoneAccess! For only $9.95 a month you get a special phone number to a recorded message of each day's FPBE picks. Perfect for March Madness with games going day & night. Click for all the exciting details. Join now and as an added bonus receive RJ Bell's top upset pick from each of the four regions and his very top ATS pick - a $50 value. With PhoneAccess there's no reason to miss out on even one winner. Specific handicapping factors for NCAA Tourney games will be examined in full detail in my next article coming on Wednesday . . . As will our list of over-performing and under-performing coaches . . . Ring the
cash register in your head, * You can tell a friend about his interesting info by simply emailing them this link [http://freepicksbyemail.com/news/] * If you are not yet a FPBE list-member (or you are but have an alternate email address that's sometimes better for you) - You can be added to our FPBE list quick & free. |